A&I online - Motor Carrier Analysis and Information Resources Online

Input State Fatal Data

What it is: State-reported fatal crash records

What's new:

State fatal crash records from the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS), rather than the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), are used as an input value to this tool. The MCMIS records are updated monthly, making them more current than FARS records, which are updated annually.

The modified tool uses 12 months of MCMIS fatal records, rather than a 3-year average of FARS records. The 12-month time period captures a more current picture of fatal crash activity.

Process Data Through

A Statistical Model

What it is: The statistical model defines the relationship between a State's fatal crash records to non-fatal crash records based on the premise that a relationship exists between them

What's new:

More recent crash data from additional States were used to develop the statistical model's base ratio of fatal to non-fatal crash involvements. The States used in the model represent a wider range of crash reporting levels.

Prediction intervals are generated by the model to provide ranges of non-fatal crash involvements rather than a single predicted number to reach.

The base ratio has been tailored to individual States by using an urbanization factor to account for the proportion of rural to urban commercial vehicle travel in a State.

Compare State

Non-Fatal Data to

Model Results

What it is: The number of non-fatal crash records reported by each State is compared to the results from the statistical model

What's new:

A determination is made if the State's non-fatal crash involvements fall within the expected data ranges output from the model. The results are used to assign each State a base result — the 1^st part of the final result assignment process. Previously, State's non-fatal crash involvements were compared to a single predicted value.

Determine

Results

What it is: Assigns a result based on the base results and the reliability of State's fatal crash data

What's new:

The fatal crash completeness (FCC) measure rating is considered since the model's output is using State-reported fatal crash records to generate estimated non-fatal crash record values. An 'override' to the final NFCC result is administered if MCMIS fatal crash record reporting is deemed insufficient.