The on-site compliance review (CR) is perhaps the single greatest resource-consuming activity of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). Thousands of CRs are conducted each year. In the most recent fiscal year, 2001, Federal and State enforcement personnel conducted almost 14,000 CRs on individual motor carriers. FMCSA expects that through education, heightened awareness of safety regulations, and the enforcement effects of the CR, motor carriers will improve the safety of their commercial vehicle operations and, ultimately, reduce their crash rates.

FMCSA, in cooperation with the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of the CR in terms of crashes avoided, injuries avoided, and lives saved. This tool will provide FMCSA management with information to address the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA), which obligates Federal agencies to measure the effectiveness of their programs as part of the budget process. It will also provide FMCSA and State safety program managers with a quantitative basis for optimizing the allocation of safety resources in the field. This analytic tool is known as the CR Impact Assessment Model.

CR Effectiveness in 1999 A total of 6,055 carriers received CRs in 1998. These carriers had a total of 13,844 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and an average crash rate of 0.823 crashes per million VMT. The model produced the following estimates:

• 1,200 crashes avoided in 1999
  • 43 fatal crashes avoided
  • 480 injury crashes avoided
  • 677 towaway crashes avoided
• 822 injuries avoided in 1999
• 51 lives saved in 1999

CR Effectiveness in 2000 The CR Impact Assessment Model was also implemented for 2000, to produce an estimate of the number of crashes (and associated injuries and fatalities) avoided in 2000 as a result of the CRs conducted in 1999. A total of 8,877 carriers received CRs in 1999. These carriers had a total of 17,409 million vehicle miles traveled and an average crash rate of 0.804 crashes per million VMT.

• 1,500 crashes avoided in 2000
  • 54 fatal crashes avoided
  • 600 injury crashes avoided
  • 846 towaway crashes avoided
• 1,028 injuries avoided in 2000
• 64 lives saved in 2000

The model will be run again in 2002 to determine the effectiveness of CRs in 2001.

The CR Impact Assessment Model shows the direct impact of compliance reviews on carrier safety, but not the “deterrent” effects (i.e., the response of carriers to the “threat” of having a CR). The model is based on the individual and cumulative “before and after” changes in the safety performance of carriers that received CRs. The model compares a motor carrier’s crash rate in a time period after a CR to its crash rate prior to that review. To make this comparison, the model uses crash and mileage data collected during CRs and CR follow-up inquiries. FMCSA recently implemented the CR Impact Assessment Model for 1999 and 2000.

How Can FMCSA Use the Model?
Certain carriers may respond better to CRs (i.e., lower their crash rates more) than other carriers do. With Analysis Division assistance, FMCSA managers can use the model to determine which carriers do or do not improve after receiving CRs and the extent of the improvement of those that do improve.

For instance, the results of the implementation of the model can be broken out by carrier safety status, i.e., the carrier’s SafeStat category before receiving the initial CR. In this case, the results can be studied to see whether carriers in the higher risk categories, A and B, that are targeted for CRs reduce their crash rates more than carriers in the lower risk categories, C-G, or vice versa. Carriers in the higher risk categories currently receive priority for CRs. They are often deficient in the SafeStat Safety Evaluation Areas (SEAs) that reflect safety performance (e.g., crashes), while carriers in the lower risk categories often have more safety compliance deficiencies (which may lead to safety performance problems if not addressed).

For carriers that received more than one CR, the results of the model implementation can also be broken out by the number of CRs the carrier received. The results can be analyzed to determine where the greatest crash rate reduction occurs for carriers with multiple CRs: after the first CR, the second CR, etc. The analysis can determine whether there are diminishing returns from performing additional CRs on the same carriers. The results of this analysis will reveal the types of carriers that will most likely respond positively to CRs. Alternative treatment approaches may be necessary for carriers that are at risk but will most likely not respond positively to CRs. By focusing on carriers that are likely to respond positively, the effectiveness of the CR program may be improved.

Please contact Mr. Dale Sienicki, FMCSA Analysis Division, at 202-366-1861 or dale.sienicki@fhwa.dot.gov if you have questions or comments or would like to receive a copy of the final report.